The Effective Week

The Planning Fallacy: We think we are faster than what we truly are

Hi everyone – Happy Friday! I have been running an internal newsletter at my workplace with over 8k subscribers around the world, and have conducted productivity-related trainings to more than 70k people in 55+ countries. Today, I finally decided to open my newsletter to the public.

Why today? Today is my birthday and I took the day off. I woke up, took my kids to Day Care, stopped at Chick-fil-A for breakfast (gift to myself, I only do this on special occasions) and then remembered I needed to send my “Friday Tip of the Week” newsletter at work.

I thought for a second “I am out of the office, I am not sending this”, but then ended up in front of my laptop, spending time writing it, and sending it. Two hours later, I have received a lot (!) of messages back from people wishing me a happy birthday, and emphasizing how much they value the information and tips that I share.

So, today I decided to trade a day of binge-watching TV into a day of reading all of these messages, thinking about the impact I have been having on others. Two hours later, here I am! (Talk about an Effective Birthday! - pun intended)

Why do this? (1) Strong demand: A lot of people have reached out expressing how much they benefit from this; (2) Content isn’t company specific: Dozens of people in the past months have left my company and asked how they can still get these, I have felt like I have let them down so far; (3) This makes me happy.

What to expect from this newsletter? Weekly and short tips that have helped a lot of people be more effective at work and at home. All written in a fun way!

Want to help? You are literally the first people to receive this, so it would be incredibly helpful if you could share it with others you believe could benefit from it. If you don't feel like it, think about it as a birthday present! (There is also a sharing option at the bottom of the email)

Well, enough intro for today, below you can read my weekly post. I hope you enjoy it!

The Planning Fallacy: We think we are faster than what we truly are

The Planning Fallacy arises from our natural inclination to be overly optimistic about our abilities and the time needed to complete tasks. We tend to underestimate potential challenges and setbacks, assuming everything will go according to plan. There has been studies that conclude that it doesn’t really matter our expertise on a topic or how many times we have done it before, we as humans always tend to have “Optimism Bias” (as our brains favor positive outcomes and downplay potential issues)

How do we overcome the Fallacy?

Actually, Agile software development processes most companies use, do a good job addressing the Fallacy. Some of them, you can apply to your day-to-day non-technical tasks as well. For instance:

  • Iterative and Incremental Approach: Agile methodologies promote breaking down projects into smaller, manageable units called iterations or sprints, which deliver a working increment of the software. By working in short cycles, teams can better estimate the effort required for each iteration, reducing the risk of underestimating the overall project timeline.

    • How can you implement this? By breaking your lion (big project) into small kittens (small tasks) that can be attainable in a week.

  • Time-Boxed Sprints: Sprints have fixed durations (usually 1 to 4 weeks). This encourages teams to focus on completing a specific set of tasks within a defined period. The predictability of these short cycles helps control the Planning Fallacy.

    • How can you implement this? By scheduling a weekly review.

  • Velocity Tracking and retrospectives: Agile teams track their velocity, which is the amount of work completed in each iteration. Over time, during Retrospectives, teams reflect and develop a better understanding of their capacity and can use this information to make more accurate estimates for future iterations.

    • How can you implement this? I will not propose that all of you start measuring your velocity, but what I do think is important is for you to acknowledge the Fallacy and schedule some buffer time (e.g. Block your Friday 2-5pm, or daily 5-5:30pm) to cover what you couldn’t finish

Best,

Jorge Luis Pando (I am still trying to find my artistic name - suggestions are always welcome)

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