Effective at being Lucky

I once resented being labeled "lucky" for achievements in school or at work, as I thought it overlooked the amount of effort I was putting in; now, I embrace it. I learned to recognize that everything involves having some uncontrollable and unpredictable luck, but that said luck can also be intentionally influenced by our own efforts. My favorite insight is from a 1978 book widely quoted since. In the post below, I explore four types of luck and suggest actions to intentionally shape our own luck.

Effective at being Lucky

There are four types of luck. Popularized by Marc Andreessen in 2007, echoed by Naval Ravikant in 2019, and illustrated by Sahil Bloom on LinkedIn in 2023, the concept of four types of luck originates from Dr. James Austin's book "Chase, Chance, and Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty" (1978, updated in 2003). These types of luck are:

1. Blind Luck: Unpredictable and beyond control. In the words of Prof. Scott Galloway, "The most important factor in determining a person’s future is when and where they are born."

2. Luck from Motion: Involves exploring opportunities through proactive efforts. Echoing the Roman proverb "Fortune favors the bold," and Charles Kettering's saying "I have never heard of anyone stumbling on something sitting down,” this type of luck mainly derives from hard work.

3. Luck from Awareness: Focuses on how deep domain expertise enables the recognition of potential opportunities. As Naval Ravikant puts it "You become very good at spotting luck (…) you will notice when a lucky break happens in that field. When other people who aren’t attuned to it won’t notice".

4. Luck from Uniqueness: Favors those with distinctive attributes, drawing specific luck based on personal qualities that are somehow rare or unique.

The story of Qi Lu exemplifies a blend of luck types. Referred to as “the most interesting person in Silicone Valley that nobody talks about”, Qi’s exceptional intellect (Blind Luck) couldn’t alone overcome his financial struggles, and didn't allow him to even take the entrance exam for his American dream. He still committed to hard work (Motion Luck). One rainy Sunday, a friend invited him to sit in for an absent attendee at a lecture. Qi's insightful questions led the lecturer to offer him a full scholarship at Carnegie Mellon (Awareness Luck). This then led Qi to become an Executive Vice President at Microsoft, COO of Baidu, and Head of Y Combinator China.

Some might think he was "lucky" because if it hadn’t rained that day, he would have ridden his bike back home and never attended the lecture. The way he puts it: "Luck is like a bus...If you miss one, there's always the next one. But if you're not prepared, you won't be able to jump on".

How to increase your luck?

1. Embrace Blind Luck: Acknowledge the uncontrollable aspects of life. Learn to recognize and appreciate serendipity.

2. Optimize Luck of Motion: Before fully embracing "hustle culture", ensure your hard work aligns with valuable goals. Beware of the "Trap Zone" (Efficient but Ineffective); prioritize effectiveness (doing the right things) before focusing on efficiency (doing things right) and motion.

3. Enhance Luck of Awareness:

   • Network actively to broaden exposure. Set goals for meeting new people, as increased interaction with experts will strengthen your own expertise.

   • Cultivate deep knowledge in your field. Dedicate time to skill development (daily 30 minutes or weekly 1 hour, start small).

4. Cultivate Luck of Uniqueness:

   • Synthesize ideas by documenting your thoughts. Since you likely consume tons of information (books, podcasts), writing down your main insights will help connect the dots effectively.

   • Craft an image of being authentic and reliable. People value reliability even more than uniqueness.

   • Improve communication skills, ensuring your talents are perceived as highly as they are possessed.

"Isn't she lovely, this Hollywood girl?",

Jorge Luis Pando

“The harder I prepare, the luckier I seem to get.” - Michael Jordan

PS1: If you understood my sign-off, you're awesome! If not, please enjoy this 90s pop culture refresher.

PS2: I decided to write about luck this week because tomorrow marks our 17th dating anniversary with my wife. I won't even attempt to classify this under any specific type of luck; I'll just call it a huge win that I wake up feeling incredibly lucky every single day.